Brigid of Kildare - A Novel

As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month’s sales, next year’s costs, or tomorrow’s stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage­known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects­ describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.

Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader’s intellect to the seat of their pants.

The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.

Praise for The Flaw of Averages

“Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage’s lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.”
—William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense

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Was diabetes evolution's response to the last Ice Age? Did a deadly genetic disease help our ancestors survive the bubonic plagues of Europe? Will a visit to the tanning salon help lower your cholesterol? Why do we age? Why are some people immune to HIV? Can your genes be turned on -- or off?

Joining the ranks of modern myth busters, Dr. Sharon Moalem turns our current understanding of illness on its head and challenges us to fundamentally change the way we think about our bodies, our health, and our relationship to just about every other living thing on earth, from plants and animals to insects and bacteria.

Through a fresh and engaging examination of our evolutionary history, Dr. Moalem reveals how many of the conditions that are diseases today actually gave our ancestors a leg up in the survival sweepstakes. When the option is a long life with a disease or a short one without it, evolution opts for disease almost every time.

Everything from the climate our ancestors lived in to the crops they planted and ate to their beverage of choice can be seen in our genetic inheritance. But Survival of the Sickest doesn't stop there. It goes on to demonstrate just how little modern medicine really understands about human health, and offers a new way of thinking that can help all of us live longer, healthier lives.

Survival of the Sickest is filled with fascinating insights and cutting-edge research, presented in a way that is both accessible and utterly absorbing. This is a book about the interconnectedness of all life on earth -- and, especially, what that means for us.

Heaven-sent?

Ellie was never particularly good at talking to boys—oranyone other than her best friend and fellow outcast, Ruth.Then she met Michael.

Michael is handsome, charming, sweet. And totallyinto Ellie. It’s no wonder she is instantly drawn to him.But Michael has a secret. And he knows Ellie is hidingsomething, too. They’ve both discovered they have powersbeyond their imagining. Powers that are otherworldly.

Ellie and Michael are determined to uncover what theyare, and how they got this way . . . together. But the truth hasrepercussions neither could have imagined. Soon they findthemselves center stage in an ancient conflict that threatensto destroy everything they love. And it is no longer clearwhether Ellie and Michael will choose the same side.

In this electrifying novel, Heather Terrell spins agripping supernatural tale about true love, destiny, and thebattle of good versus evil.

Lady-in-waiting Jane Sweetwater's resistance to the legendary attentions of Henry VIII may have saved her pretty neck, but her reward is a forced and unhappy marriage with a much older man and a harsh life on his farm. Her only consolation is that she still lives upon her beloved Exmoor, the bleak yet beautiful land that cradles Allerbrook House, her family home.

Played out in this remote, forbidding place, Jane's long and storied life is fraught with change: her fiercely protective nature leads her to assume responsibility not only for her own husband and child, but also for the rebellious son of her wayward sister. In time, she regains the position of a woman with status and property, but she cannot ignore the rumblings from London, as the articles of faith change with every new coronation.

Jane's small world is penetrated by plotting, treachery and even thwarted love as those she holds dearest are forced to choose between family loyalty and fealty to the crown.