Modeling Risk - Applying Monte Carlo Risk Simulation, Strategic Real Options, Stochastic Forecasting, and Portfolio Optimization

The core methods in today's econometric toolkit are linear regression for statistical control, instrumental variables methods for the analysis of natural experiments, and differences-in-differences methods that exploit policy changes. In the modern experimentalist paradigm, these techniques address clear causal questions such as: Do smaller classes increase learning? Should wife batterers be arrested? How much does education raise wages? Mostly Harmless Econometrics shows how the basic tools of applied econometrics allow the data to speak.

In addition to econometric essentials, Mostly Harmless Econometrics covers important new extensions--regression-discontinuity designs and quantile regression--as well as how to get standard errors right. Joshua Angrist and Jörn-Steffen Pischke explain why fancier econometric techniques are typically unnecessary and even dangerous. The applied econometric methods emphasized in this book are easy to use and relevant for many areas of contemporary social science.

• An irreverent review of econometric essentials
• A focus on tools that applied researchers use most
• Chapters on regression-discontinuity designs, quantile regression, and standard errors
• Many empirical examples
• A clear and concise resource with wide applications

** The “Memoirs of Paris Past” collection presents fiction and non-fiction – travelers' guides, journals, histories,etc. - which wholly or in part shows Paris as it was at different points in history. If you love Paris and want to virtually stroll its streets in past times, search for “Memoirs of Paris Past” to find other works in the series. **

From the author of this volume:
“The contents of this volume are the result of two visits to Paris. The first when Louis Napoleon was president of the Republic; and the second when Napoleon III. was emperor of France. I have sketched people and places as I saw them at both periods, and the reader should bear this in mind.
I have not endeavored to make a hand-book to Paris, but have described those places and objects which came more particularly under my notice. I have also thought it best, instead of devoting my whole space to the description of places, or the manners of the people—a subject which has been pretty well exhausted by other writers—to give a few sketches of the great men of Paris and of France; and among them, a few of the representative literary men of the past. There is not a general knowledge of French literature and authors, either past or present, among the mass of readers; and Paris and France can only be truly known through French authors and literature.
My object has been to add somewhat to the general reader's knowledge of Paris and the Parisians,—of the people and the places, whose social laws are the general guide of the civilized world.”
Bartlett's book alternates a very touristy view of various sites of Paris with brief portraits of some of its great figures, providing a portrait of Paris that is both physical and cultural.

** The Memoirs of Paris Past collection presents fiction and non-fiction – travelers' guides, journals, histories,etc. - which wholly or in part shows Paris as it was at different points in history. If you love Paris and want to virtually stroll its streets in past times, search for “Memoirs of Paris Past” to find other works in the series. **

From the author's note for How To Enjoy Paris in 1842:

“In offering the following pages to the public, the author has been principally influenced by a desire of uniting useful information with that which he hopes may prove amusing to the reader, endeavouring as much as possible to keep in view the spirit of the title "How to enjoy Paris;" and having been accustomed to hear such constant and bitter murmurings from the English, in consequence of their having been so frequently imposed upon by the Paris shopkeepers, considerable pains and attention have been devoted to guard the reader against his being subjected to a similar evil; ....
As the present work includes the different subjects of History, Antiquities, Politics, Manners, Customs, Army, Navy, Literature, Painting, Music, Theatres, Performers, etc., etc., the author flatters himself that readers of every taste will find a chapter which treats upon some subject that may interest them.”

The author begins with a survey of Paris' history before leading the reader around Paris, with a lively, fast-moving review of both the sites of Paris and the character of the French, comparing, notably, French women to English. His wide-ranging look at the city includes some entertaining tales of colorful criminals as well as a tour of sights such as the Conciergerie, Notre Dame, the Jardin des Plantes, the Hotel de Ville and the city's various bridges. He then gives specific advice to the English tourist visiting the city before looking at new businesses and industries there. This is followed by a chapter especially for “the ladies” and another on various forms of progress in various domains. And so on... The book is a very wide-ranging and human look at Paris at a particular time in French history.

This is the eBook version of the printed book. If the print book includes a CD-ROM, this content is not included within the eBook version.

A Breakthrough Framework for Adaptive Project Management from Project Management Guru Robert K. Wysocki

Traditional project management models simply are not appropriate for an increasing number of critical projects, for which complete requirements and objectives cannot be specified upfront, and relentless change cannot be avoided. What’s needed is an entirely new framework for project management: one that combines Agile methods with the profession’s most enduring best practices. In this book, Robert K. Wysocki provides that framework–the Adaptive Project Framework (APF)–and shows how to apply it in any domain.

Wysocki, one of the world’s leading project management consultants, has spent decades helping large organizations succeed with complex projects. Drawing on everything he’s learned, he explains why a fundamentally new framework is needed, and introduces all five phases of that framework. He covers artifacts, processes, and deliverables, and shows how to utilize each phase most effectively in your environment. Through four detailed case studies, you’ll discover how APF can help you adapt to unexpected events, encouraging creative responses based on open partnerships between clients and project teams.

Coverage includes

• Bringing greater flexibility and speed to any project, regardless of its goals or context
• Moving forward successfully with projects that have vague requirements
• Discovering what clients really want, not just what they say they want
• Managing ongoing scope changes throughout a project
• Customizing APF to your own environment
• Integrating APF with existing agile software development methods
• Overcoming the obstacles to success with APF
• Preparing for the future of project management

This book is written for every project participant–project and program managers, software and product developers, process designers, and business analysts–who needs to deliver results in a world that won’t stand still.

You are about to download the eBook version of John Wesley's Notes on the Entire Bible-The Book of Mark.

Instead of downloading John Wesley's Notes on the Entire Bible in its entirety, we have conveniently broken this monumental work into individual books. This allows you to save more free space on your eReader device and makes for faster searches and quicker navigation. We sincerely hope these features will enhance your studies and maximize your reading experience.
Within this exhaustive commentary of the scriptures, John Wesley translated, interpreted, and applied every Biblical passage in depth. His New Testament Notes are official United Methodist Church doctrine. The Old Testament notes have been out of print for many years, and hard copy editions are very hard to find. Every preacher/teacher in the Wesleyan tradition should read Wesley's Notes before going to the pulpit. Whether you're scouring scripture, or just casually studying, you will find this commentary very insightful.

Don't pass up this opportunity to obtain this edition of this awesome Bible reference commentary! Original hard copy editions of these works have sold for many times the cost of this download. You won't be disappointed!

"Owing to his teaching as a finance professor and as an experienced investment banker, John Finnerty brings to his book, Project Financing, an insightful perspective, blending the theoretical with the practical."
—Zoltan Merszei, former chairman, president, and CEO, The Dow Chemical Company

"Finnerty has managed to distill the complexities of project financing with its myriad components and variations. Clear, practical, and in-depth, Project Financing is a valuable user's guide for project sponsors, regulators, host governments (local and foreign), and financiers alike."
—Ricardo M. Campoy, Director, Kilgore Minerals Ltd.

"Project Financing warrants a place in the essential libraries of corporate financial managers, their advisors, senior strategists, bankers, large private investors, government officials, and anyone who aspires to master innovation in corporate finance."
—Robert F. Bruner, Dean and Charles C. Abbott Professor of Business Administration, Darden Graduate School of Business Administration, University of Virginia