The Gorman Lectures in Economics
Princeton University Press, December 2008
It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds.
The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies.
Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
$17.39 List price: $27.95 You save: 38% ($10.56)
If you use one of Kobo's free reading apps you won't need to worry about download options most of the time. Your Kobo reading app can easily add Kobo Store books to your library for a seamless reading experience.
Download options matter when:
In both of these cases you will need to:
You can also use Digital Editions to transfer the book to your eReader. See here for more information on Digital Editions.
You can read this item on your computer using our free Kobo Desktop Application. This application lets you read, manage your library of eBooks, and even shop for new ones. Check out our demo for more information!
Learn More »You can read this item on your Kobo eReader (or other select electronic reading devices). The Kobo eReader lets you carry your whole library with you, so that you can read on the go.
Visit kobo.com/ereaders »You can read this item on select tablets using one of our free Kobo apps. These apps let you read, manage your library of eBooks, and even shop for new ones.
Learn More »You can read this item on your Kobo Vox eReader. The Kobo Vox eReader lets you read books with color, sound or interactive elements. Check out our demo for more information on the Kobo Vox.
Learn More »You can read this item on your Kobo Arc using the Library app. This app lets you read, manage your library of eBooks, and shop for new books.
Learn More »You can read this item on any Android device (phone, tablet) with one of our free Kobo apps. These apps let you read, manage your library of eBooks, and even shop for new ones.
Learn More »You can read this item on the free Kobo app for iPhone. This app let you read, manage your library of eBooks, and even shop for new ones.
Download the iPhone App! Learn More »
By: {2}
Available on: {3}
Coming soon
Secure TransactionSubtotal
Store Credit
Total
We'll charge your credit card {4} on {3}.
We'll charge your credit card {4} when the book is added to your Library.
Your store credit covers the cost of this purchase, so we don't charge your credit card
Use Quick Buy for all eBook purchases.{2} is now in your library. You'll receive an email confirming your purchase very soon.
{2} has been pre-ordered. You'll receive a confirmation email confirming your pre-order very soon.
You were charged:
You will be charged: on {3}
You will be charged: when the book is added to your Library
Rakuten Super Points earned: {1}
Rakuten Super Points {1} earned after the book is added to your Library
